In this study, an inclusive effect of economy, gross domestic product (GDP) and other socio-economic terms are deeply taken into account for long lasting and future projection of electricity usage in Pakistan. The explaining variables considered in this study are gross domestic product GDP, per capita GDP, electricity consumption price/kwh and population, to develop the different regression models. The historical data considered for time period of past 47 years from 1970-2016. This paper is divided into two parts, in first part estimation of income, price and GDP elasticities are evaluated for residential, non-residential and total electricity consumption models. These elasticities showed that long-run and short-run price elasticities for domestic model are -0.30 and -0.32, for non-domestic model 0.42 and 0.64 where-as for total electricity consumption model price elasticities are 0.50 and o.93. In addition GDP/per capita and GDP resulted higher values. In second part, different statistical models are presented by using linear regression, which are based on the stationary or co-integrated time series data. Moreover for checking the validity of proposed models different statistical tests are conducted. A comparison with available national forecasts, which are proposed through different econometric models, like support-vector model or Pakistan’s long range-energy alternative plaining (LEAP) model was exmined, resulting that proposed regression model has compatibility with national projections, with deviation of ±2% to ±12% for the best and worst case, these deviations are acceptable in the time span taken into account.
M Ibraheem Waseera: M.E Scholar, Department of Electrical Engineering Mehran UET Jamshoro, Sindh, Pakistan
Mansoor A Soomro: Department of Electrical Engineering, Mehran UET, Jamshoro Sindh, Pakistan 76020
M Ibraheem Waseera and Mansoor A Soomro Investigating Future Consumptionf Electricity Estimates in Pakistan using Linear Regression Analy International Journal of Engineering Works Vol. 7 Issue 01 PP. 39-47 January 2020
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