Sajadullah, Asif Khan, Naila Ahmad
Climate Change, an inevitable phenomenon, is impacting weather patterns and results in extreme climatic events. Pakistan is the 5th most affected country by climate change. Globally, Pakistan is highly susceptible to temperature rise, due to its geographic location. This study explores the effects of climate change on the seasonal flows of Budni Nullah. In order to, investigate the effect of changing climate, bias-corrected data of five General Circulation Models (GCMs) of “Coupled Intercomparison Project-6” (CMIP6), under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2-4.5) have been used. The hydrologic model, Soil and water assessment Tool, (SWAT) was calibrated and Validated for a period of six years (2002-2008) and four years (2009-2013) respectively with statistical functions: R-squared, 0.78 & 0.58, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, 0.75 & 0.80. Three future time periods: (2011-2040), (2041-2070) and (2071-2100) of each 30 years were selected and accordingly. The average monthly flow was modeled for SSP245. A comparison of the results reveal that for majority of the time increas in flows were witnessed during monsoon season. Higher flows were observed during time period of 2011-2040.
Sajadullah Asif Khan Naila Ahmad “Seasonal Variation in Budhni Nullah’s Flows Under Changing Climate” Internation Vol. 10 Issue 08 PP. 69-73 June 2023. https://doi.org/10.34259/ijew.23.10086973.
